Friday, August 15, 2008

The Cold War is Back---and Maybe Scarier Than Ever

From  The New York Times  

WASHINGTON — The United States and Poland reached a long-stalled deal on Thursday to place an American missile defense base on Polish territory, in the strongest reaction so far to Russia’s military operation in Georgia.

Russia reacted angrily, saying that the move would worsen relations with the United States that have already been strained severely in the week since Russian troops entered separatist enclaves in Georgia, a close American ally. At a news conference on Friday, a senior Russian defense official, Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, suggested that Poland was making itself a target by agreeing to host the anti-missile system. Such an action “cannot go unpunished,” he said.

The deal reflected growing alarm in a range of countries that had been part of the Soviet sphere about a newly rich and powerful Russia’s intentionsin its former cold war sphere of power. In fact, negotiations dragged on for 18 months — but were completed only as old memories and new fears surfaced in recent days.

Those fears were codified to some degree in what Polish and American officials characterized as unusual aspects of the final deal: that at least temporarily American soldiers would staff air defense sites in Poland oriented toward Russia, and that the United States would be obliged to defend Poland in case of an attack with greater speed than required under NATO, of which Poland is a member.

Polish officials said the agreement would strengthen the mutual commitment of the United States to defend Poland, and vice versa. “Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later — it is no good when assistance comes to dead people,” the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, said on Polish television. “Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of — knock on wood — any possible conflict.”

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Like some Disneyland attraction being revamped to pack more thrills into the crowds it will attract, the Bush Administration  has finally got Cold War II up and running at max speed by getting Poland to agree to let our government place ballistic missiles in a former Warsaw-Pact nation on Russia's western border.  This "defense sheild" idea, some kind of warmed-over Reagan Era "Star Wars" plan, seemed a bad idea in its inception and, now, coming on the heels of the fighting between Russia and Georgia, it seems extra-reckless.

Bush seems to want the scowling Vlad Putin and his puppets in the Kremlin to buy into the notion that putting ballistic missiles in Eastern Europe poses no threat to Russia. They are really aimed at stopping "rogue states" like Iran.  Has anybody noticed Poland is nowhere near Iran?    If such missiles are what it takes to keep the military-industrial powers happy, why do they have to invite less real security for Americans?  Isn't it scary enough that a border dispute between Poland and Russia could break out, as it has in the Black Sea republic of Georgia, over some "breakaway region" and that NATO is obliged to fight as if an attack on a border town or a Polish city like Lublin is an attack on London or Chicago?  With allies like Poland, a battleground for European Wars since Napoleon was in short pants, who needs enemies?  Aren't our forces already bogged down in two wars?  In what dimension of understanding does this make sense?

It doesn't mater what Washington's Neo Cons think; what matters is that the Moscow doesn't want these missiles near its border anymore than President Kennedy's Washington  and most of the Western Hemisphere wanted nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962.  And how does provoking a mature nuclear power help prevent the emergence of a new one in Iran?   This could undo all that the collapse of state Communism achieved in the 1990's and, literally, undo it in a nasty radiated flash.  

15 comments:

  1. This has the potential to become a big deal. Citizens seem to be powerless to stop them. I'm scared and worried about this.

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  2. What I don't get is who's going to shoot missiles at Poland?

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  3. I wonder how dumb our government officials think we are (maybe I should rephrase we elected the two Bush's three times).

    I believe the Poles are right and justified in trying to protect their population while they are alive.

    I can also understand why the Russians do not want missiles pointed at "Iran" right next to them. You never know when one of the guidance systems might "malfunction" and stray to the right and hit a Russian military target.

    In the immortal words of Rodney King "Why can't we all just get along?"

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  4. I am having trouble with the idea that seems to be coming out of the USA that Russia has "invaded" Georgia. We are hearing a different story.
    You might like to check this link http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0807/S00102.htm

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  5. Re astroguy's comment, it has nothing to do with protecting Poland. It is just like US using Canadian bases.

    Not that Poland doesn't have reason to be afraid, (as you point out) given how many times thier section of the European Plain has been chopped up and shared out among their neighbors. They have been under occupation more than they have been independednt in recent centuries. They are perhaps mistaken to believe US will defend them if Russia does come knocking again. The US tends to run out on small and expendable allies onece we get them in deep enough water.

    To mantain any balance of power in Europe, just like France had to be kept strong enough to balance germany, sans a real EU or UN, Russia doesn't need to be threatened too much, especially as they now hold the shut-off valve to Europe's winter furnace.

    "Has anybody noticed Poland is nowhere near Iran?" Um, actually, look at your globe, they are right in line on a Great Circle route between Middle East (nuclear threats from Israel to Pakistan, although we specifically vilify Iran) and New York/Washington DC (screw the rest of us).

    Get ready for lots of hypocrisy, like we can't let big bad Russia invade a neighboring independent country/former colony, even while our military is up to their necks in to 2 distant countries the US has invaded. I'm with you, I think it is a big money making scheme for a handful of Republic party member owned military companies. No, it doesn't make anybody safer.

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  6. I think for a change Russia are right, this is is going to upset the balance of things. Of course we know they have an axe to grind. Nevertheless, I can't see any good coming out of strengthening Poland's air defences. The west will lose control over what is happening. There could be a flare up at any time, things happen so fast. We all know where Russia will lay the blame, and yes, another cold war.

    Who are the people who say Poland is ready and responsible enough for this? Why are we handing them a loaded gun, to what end? I can't see this agreement will help protect Europe or America. There are already enough missiles pointing every which way, to cover and defend those places. I also doubt strengthening Poland's air defences will do much good. Unless they are hot heads, they will be frightened to use it against such a great power. We all know this agreement is a sprat to catch a mackerel!

    Cassandra

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  7. LOL...when you put it that way astroguy, shooting missles at Poland is kind of like bombing Medford , Oregon--it could be done, but what's the point?

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  8. I think its part of their Constitution or something...you can't blame the Poles for wanting to stay alive.

    Three Bush elections in just five Presidential elections??... methinks we need to defend ourselves from ourselves!

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  9. well, we got enough a-bombs to hit everything including sledge missisippi, i guess just for good measure

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  10. Yes, I thought the NATO was organized in 1948 to deter the Russians from invading Turkey, Greece, and nations in Western Europe.

    As I pointed out before, Georgia and the Ukraine are not near the North Atlantic, but east of the Black Sea! And all these little regional conflicts between Georgia, Russia and the regional zones like South Ossetia and all are like the Balkans back in the early 20th Century--a tinderbox worth peacekeeping units of some type, but not worth a multi-continental war over. Thanks for the link Iri Ani.

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  11. That's my point---who feels safer because of this? Thanks.

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  12. Good points Cassandra. Poland is a relatively new democracy and has little geographical protections from Russia and a lot of bad history about defending its borders to fultile ends: so yes I agree we (the charter NATO forces) could lose control over the systems. And then where are we? Anyone feeling safer yet?

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  13. There's a a-bomb for Sledge Mississippi I'm sure--right before they nuke Medford.

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